andrewducker | (Reply)

From:

What I think Sturgeon is up to is that she'd like (more) of a mandate for IndyRef2 than she currently has and she thinks there is an excellent chance she'll poll 45%+ and might poll 50%+ and that she will win substantially all of the seats in Scotland and perhaps all of them. The majorities of Carmichael, Murray and Mundell require about 2,000 swing voters to switch to the SNP.

Probably the worst case for her is that she loses a couple of rural seats to the Convervatives and a couple of suburban seats to the Lib Dems leaving her with 50+ seats.

There are 12 seats in Scotland where the SNP polled less than 42% of the vote (including the 3 seats they didn't win). Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk is a pretty marginal SNP, Conservative seat with the Lib Dems third (SNP 36.6% Con 36% LD 18.7%), Dumbartonshire East is an SNP - LD marginal (SNP 40% to Ld 36.3%) with similar stories in Edinburgh West and Fife North East. So of the 12 most marginal SNP seats about half have the opposition split between two parties.

Best case is that she wins all the seats and might poll above 50%.