Interesting Links for 25-09-2021
Sep. 25th, 2021 12:00 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
andrewducker- Spain to ban sale of fruit and vegetables in plastic wrapping from 2023
- (tags:plastic Spain food )
- The NSA and CIA Use Ad Blockers Because Online Advertising Is So Dangerous
- (tags:CIA security advertising adblock )
- UK ministers backing plans for another new nuclear power plant to help reduce carbon footprint
- (tags:UK nuclearpower co2 )
- England set to eradicate HIV by 2030
- (tags:England HIV GoodNews )
- China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal
- (tags:bitcoin China Doom )
- Fossilized Footprints Reveal Human Habitation of North America 23,000 Years Ago
- (tags:humans paleontology prehistory USA America )
- Minority voices filtered out of Google Natural Language Processing models
- (tags:Google racism LGBT language )
- "The most scarily/stunningly impressive linguistic feat I've ever seen"
- (tags:language computers games )
- Is this the religious sexual equivalent of Sovereign Citizen thought processes?
- (tags:logic sex mormons religion wtf )
no subject
Date: 2021-09-25 01:09 pm (UTC)5. I cannot fault this choice, much as I fault the government of mainland China/Zhong Guo for many other things.
6. Good to know...
7. This has to be remedied.
9. ...sigh...
40 years too late...
Date: 2021-09-25 04:54 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 10:17 am (UTC)Then someone will stick a solar panel on top of it.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 10:18 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 10:21 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 10:23 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 11:05 am (UTC)To which the answer is - I'm not sure. (Looking at the articles I've linked to I'd guess $70 per kilowatthour of storage capacity removes any situation where nukes have an operational-cost advantage i.e. there are no situations where a nuke is helpful on any grid, at any time, in any set of requirements, but I'd want to think a bit about that.)
I'm also not sure it's entirely the right question as I think the key number is the overall cost per MWH for the whole system.
I think it would be dependent on the scenario and the situation you find yourself in and therefore what job the nuclear plant is doing on your grid.
If you have a lot of solar, not much wind, electricity demand is driven by day-time cooling and the job the nukes are doing is providing electricity overnight then the cost of storage doesn't have to come down as much because you will be cycling the storage every day - storage capital costs amortised over many cycles.
If you have lots of wind but not great solar and electricity demand is driven by winter heating then the job the nuke is doing might be covering for a couple of week period when you have low winds and avoiding having to add storage that you only use a couple of times a year.
This guys seems to think the answer is $20 per kilowatt hour of storage capacity makes 100% renewables cheaper than all other current alternatives with a 100% Effective Availability Factor over a twenty year period (i.e. no black-outs or brown-outs ever) $150 if you are prepared to tolerate a few interruptions from time to time or will allow some other form of demand management to play e.g. over-sized interconnectors or demand management or some nukes.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/8/9/20767886/renewable-energy-storage-cost-electricity
The original study linked
https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(19)30300-9
Some other discussion on storage costs
including this one linked to by the Vox article
https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2017/Oct/IRENA_Electricity_Storage_Costs_2017_Summary.pdf?la=en&hash=2FDC44939920F8D2BA29CB762C607BC9E882D4E9
https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy19osti/73222.pdf
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 11:47 am (UTC)Looks like we're around $150 at the moment for Li-Ion (although I'm seeing everything from that to $400 depending on the source I look at!), so hopefully we can close that gap. Whether we can do that before 2026 and prevent the nuclear plant being built is another matter!
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 12:02 pm (UTC)By 2026 the developers of the nuclear site would need to be confident that the cost of storage wasn't going to fall much further over the next couple of decades.
Or that they would have some state guarantees of prices.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 12:05 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 12:30 pm (UTC)I guess what I'm fishing about it in is this - if your cost of production is about $125 / MWH starting in say 2030 (based on Hinckley C) and, for the sake of argument, let's assume that the UK's wind and solar fleet are priced at an average cost of $125 / MWH (made up of much cheaper direct power with some expensive storage) and the cost of that is coming down by say 1% a year on average then in about 20-25 years time, in 2045, when the 2030 vintage of solar PV / wind turbines and batteries gets renewed you about $25 / MWH or 25% too expensive. And the situation is getting worse.
That's a big state guarantee to ask for and you have to be pretty confident that the state will actually back that guarantee.
And you have another 40-60 years of design life left to run from 2045 and I don't see any mechanism whereby energy prices start to go back up. Not that I think renewables prices will keep falling at their current rate for 60 years, but I'm certain about the next 10 and confident about the next 20.
I think it's a different ask if your price was $125 and long-term energy prices looked like they might be in a band of $115 to $140 with the occasional excitement of an oil war.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 12:52 pm (UTC)Which is why I said https://andrewducker.dreamwidth.org/4052353.html?thread=28137345#cmt28137345 (and was surprised you disagreed)
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 01:02 pm (UTC)So I think one of the following happens
1) it goes no further in 2022
2) the current government goes ahead with the scheme and by 2026 it is obvious it is going to be a boondoggle but by then everyone is too committed, there is some messing about with reviews for 10 years and the government gives a price guarantee it can and will default on and the developer pretends to believe this and passes on the additional financiing costs to the consumer and the project goes bust in about 2050 and gets nationalised and everyone knows it but nobody says that bit outloud.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 01:10 pm (UTC)Has the government ever made price guarantees and then reneged on them? Seems like an excellent way to never, ever, have companies deliver anything ever again.
no subject
Date: 2021-09-27 01:16 pm (UTC)