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andrewduckerWhat I expect to happen over the next few UK electoral cycles
Basically, the same as what happened over the first few elections under Blair's Labour:
That's the medium ground.
The worse world is the one where rather than having vaguely likeable and on the less awful end of the party (like Cameron) a proper populist persuades enough people to their cause and we end up with a mini-Trump/Farage/etc. in charge.
The better world is one where we finally get a hung parliament with the smaller parties insisting on fixing the electoral system so that a small swing doesn't take you from a massive majority for one of the big two to a massive majority of the other one, and people have to learn how to compromise.
Basically, the same as what happened over the first few elections under Blair's Labour:
- Election 1 (1997) - Labour staggeringly popular, largely due to replacing a Conservative government mired in sleaze, corruption, and incompetence.
- Next few elections - Labour less popular, as the people who had put their differences to one side to Get The Tories Out are disenchanted, Labour reverts back to authoritarian type, and things don't improve as much as you'd hope as Labour continue fiddling round the edges of the economy to try to avoid annoying anyone.
- Eventually (2010) - Someone who can talk like an actual human takes over running the Conservative Party just as the Labour Party try to ram through some unpleasant nonsense, and they get a big enough swing back to persuade people that *this* time nobody will have to be nailed to anything.
That's the medium ground.
The worse world is the one where rather than having vaguely likeable and on the less awful end of the party (like Cameron) a proper populist persuades enough people to their cause and we end up with a mini-Trump/Farage/etc. in charge.
The better world is one where we finally get a hung parliament with the smaller parties insisting on fixing the electoral system so that a small swing doesn't take you from a massive majority for one of the big two to a massive majority of the other one, and people have to learn how to compromise.
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Date: 2024-05-28 11:55 am (UTC)One would like to think the smaller party in any future coalition would have absorbed the necessary lesson about reforming the electoral system from the 2010-2015 coalition.
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Date: 2024-05-28 12:02 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-05-28 12:15 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-05-28 04:15 pm (UTC)Just like, there is a very clear example RIGHT THERE of what happens if you don't make it item number one. And definitely don't accept putting it to a referendum.
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Date: 2024-05-28 12:06 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-05-28 12:14 pm (UTC)I think I'd want to see the outcome of the 2024 election before signing on to it fully.
I think if the Tories lose badly (150-175 seats) that probably adds one more electoral cycle to your prediction. If they lose very very badly (>150 seats) then things get strange.
Potential strangenesses
1) The only potential Tory leaders left are all deeply unelectable but the Tories are to enervated to notice and they suffer an electoral disaster in 2029.
2) The Lib-Dems have a surprisingly good election in '24 or '29 and start looking like a potential main opposition party. Tory funding dries up, the Lib-Dems start polling ahead of the Tories. Lots of economically liberal, socially liberal form Tory Wets join the Lib Dems. (NB the Rowntree funding for the Lib Dems might be important here.)
3) Reform continue to poll well but their potential vote is evenly distributed across the country so splits the centre-right and right vote in lots of constituencies.
4) The relationship with the EU gets looked at again (my guess would be somewhere in the middle of Starmer's second term.
5) The SNP win handsomely the 2026 Scottish Election and a second independence referendum follows which Yes win.
I think if a couple of these things happen then the Tories functionally cease to exist in the same way the Liberal Party ceased to exist or the electoral landscape becomes very strange.
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Date: 2024-05-28 12:18 pm (UTC)I'd be delighted by any of those, to be honest.
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Date: 2024-05-28 12:52 pm (UTC)But this election I think we *might* be at a point where things do go off the rails a bit.
So I'm on the look out for evidence of oddness.*
*Evidence of Oddness is not Oddness of Evidence.
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Date: 2024-05-28 01:15 pm (UTC)Normally I would feel the same way, but it feels like we've been living in interesting times since 2010-ish.
Not as interesting as some countries, which I am very grateful for. But certainly from 2019-2022 far too interesting.
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Date: 2024-05-28 02:02 pm (UTC)Shame for them.
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Date: 2024-05-28 02:07 pm (UTC)It's possible that the Labour Party will become that, of course ;-)
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Date: 2024-05-28 04:16 pm (UTC)To quote Douglas Adams, some people say that this has already happened.
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Date: 2024-05-29 08:25 am (UTC)we would be a bit short on the left.
There is a stronger left pull on the Greens so I am not sure they could comfortably fill through centre-left void.
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Date: 2024-05-28 03:52 pm (UTC)First, there's the emergence of new forces on the right, principally Reform/Farage, but there are other political entrepreneurs circling and waiting to try and set themselves up as the saviours of the true essence of conservatism/Thatcherism. A lot of these are pushing to replace or reshape the Tories, not just pull them to their side on certain issues. Their strategy is to emulate the way the Reform Party of Canada essentially took over the conservative side there.
Second, and perhaps less noticed so far, is that there could well be a Lib Dem surge in this election going up to 40-50 seats, maybe even more. However, these seats are likely to be won on a very tight voter base, principally affluent voters in the south of England and so the post-election Lib Dems are going to find themselves being pulled rightwards by this political geography, especially if the Tories are imploding and a swathe of Tory voters, former MPs (the sort who were forced out by Johnson in 2019) and institutions are looking for a new political home. With a lot of new MPs not wanting to scare the horses, there'll be a lot of temptation for them to become an essentially socially liberal centre-right party with whatever's left of the Tories squeezed between them and whatever forms as the new Right party/formation.
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Date: 2024-05-28 07:25 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 12:31 pm (UTC)I think if I were the Lib Dems I might keep quiet about the possibility though.
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Date: 2024-05-28 04:08 pm (UTC)kerk
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Date: 2024-05-29 08:13 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 08:17 am (UTC)If you're asking "Will support for Independence drop to zero" then the answer is no.
Some people will be swayed. Some people who are hoping Labour will make everything awesome will be disappointed. I doubt that the movement will go anywhere.
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Date: 2024-05-29 08:28 am (UTC)If Indepence happens we have completely different games in play.
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Date: 2024-05-29 08:53 am (UTC)*My* red line is PR. If the UK gets PR then I'm happy enough to hang about. Other people have their own ones.
We'll just have to wait and see. I doubt that anything major will happen in the next ten years. But I have been repeatedly wrong about predicting political earthquakes, so who knows?
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Date: 2024-05-29 12:38 pm (UTC)Some, but not all of the support for independence is tied up with EU membership. The Labour Party making some moves towards that might reduce that support.
Some, quite a bit probably, is linked to England voting for centre-right governments that Scotland would not vote for. A Labour Government in Westminster probably reduces that support for a while.
Some of the support for Scottish independence is genuine blood and soil nationalism. Not a lot of it but some. That doesn't go away with a Labour Government and perhaps becomes more intense if there are moves to align with the EU.
For me the question is timing and the rate of decay of youthful pro-independence sentiment. If young people remain overall more in favour of independence and Labour are slow to sort things out and get closer to the EU then support for independence might approach 50% during a Labour Government. If youth support for independence fades noticeably as they get older and the Labour party are successful in their first term then support might drop from about 45% to high-30's.
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Date: 2024-05-29 12:56 pm (UTC)I think that the biggest issue will be if Labour are very disappointing. A lot of support in Scotland came from the SNP being a left-wing alternative to Labour who were a lot less complacent. Four years of Labour in power in Scotland and the UK might be enough to convince a bunch of people that things aren't going to get better.
We'll see how they do!