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andrewduckerWhat I expect to happen over the next few UK electoral cycles
Basically, the same as what happened over the first few elections under Blair's Labour:
That's the medium ground.
The worse world is the one where rather than having vaguely likeable and on the less awful end of the party (like Cameron) a proper populist persuades enough people to their cause and we end up with a mini-Trump/Farage/etc. in charge.
The better world is one where we finally get a hung parliament with the smaller parties insisting on fixing the electoral system so that a small swing doesn't take you from a massive majority for one of the big two to a massive majority of the other one, and people have to learn how to compromise.
Basically, the same as what happened over the first few elections under Blair's Labour:
- Election 1 (1997) - Labour staggeringly popular, largely due to replacing a Conservative government mired in sleaze, corruption, and incompetence.
- Next few elections - Labour less popular, as the people who had put their differences to one side to Get The Tories Out are disenchanted, Labour reverts back to authoritarian type, and things don't improve as much as you'd hope as Labour continue fiddling round the edges of the economy to try to avoid annoying anyone.
- Eventually (2010) - Someone who can talk like an actual human takes over running the Conservative Party just as the Labour Party try to ram through some unpleasant nonsense, and they get a big enough swing back to persuade people that *this* time nobody will have to be nailed to anything.
That's the medium ground.
The worse world is the one where rather than having vaguely likeable and on the less awful end of the party (like Cameron) a proper populist persuades enough people to their cause and we end up with a mini-Trump/Farage/etc. in charge.
The better world is one where we finally get a hung parliament with the smaller parties insisting on fixing the electoral system so that a small swing doesn't take you from a massive majority for one of the big two to a massive majority of the other one, and people have to learn how to compromise.
no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 08:13 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 08:17 am (UTC)If you're asking "Will support for Independence drop to zero" then the answer is no.
Some people will be swayed. Some people who are hoping Labour will make everything awesome will be disappointed. I doubt that the movement will go anywhere.
no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 08:28 am (UTC)If Indepence happens we have completely different games in play.
no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 08:53 am (UTC)*My* red line is PR. If the UK gets PR then I'm happy enough to hang about. Other people have their own ones.
We'll just have to wait and see. I doubt that anything major will happen in the next ten years. But I have been repeatedly wrong about predicting political earthquakes, so who knows?
no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 12:38 pm (UTC)Some, but not all of the support for independence is tied up with EU membership. The Labour Party making some moves towards that might reduce that support.
Some, quite a bit probably, is linked to England voting for centre-right governments that Scotland would not vote for. A Labour Government in Westminster probably reduces that support for a while.
Some of the support for Scottish independence is genuine blood and soil nationalism. Not a lot of it but some. That doesn't go away with a Labour Government and perhaps becomes more intense if there are moves to align with the EU.
For me the question is timing and the rate of decay of youthful pro-independence sentiment. If young people remain overall more in favour of independence and Labour are slow to sort things out and get closer to the EU then support for independence might approach 50% during a Labour Government. If youth support for independence fades noticeably as they get older and the Labour party are successful in their first term then support might drop from about 45% to high-30's.
no subject
Date: 2024-05-29 12:56 pm (UTC)I think that the biggest issue will be if Labour are very disappointing. A lot of support in Scotland came from the SNP being a left-wing alternative to Labour who were a lot less complacent. Four years of Labour in power in Scotland and the UK might be enough to convince a bunch of people that things aren't going to get better.
We'll see how they do!